Trading Sunset

August began on an especially bearish note, with the SPX swinging from 5566 to 5410, and settling -75pts (1.4%) to 5446.

Thursday’s candle was especially bearish engulfing, eclipsing the price action of the prior four days, and strongly bodes for lower lows.

—

Increasing market drama

The past few weeks have seen volatility climb from the 11s to 19s, as we appear to have a key equity top ahead of the election.

I’d especially note VIX monthly momentum, which turned positive in July, and is set to be increasingly positive into the Fall.

Between now and early November, I have to expect at least a few of the ‘wild cards’ to play out. If correct, we’re set for some very dynamic price action.
—

If you’re interested in unbiased commentary on what remains the world’s most entertaining, twisted, and rigged casino, you know what to do.

Regardless of how June settles, with a new hist’ high (5505 as of June 20th), its to be seen as a net bullish month. Monthly momentum is powerfully strong, as all cooling waves remain very limited.

The summer does threaten some unrest though…

-French & UK Elections.
-Trump, and related political chatter.
-Geo-political upsets via Israel/middle east, and Ukraine/Russia.

Between now and the Nov’5th election (assuming there is one), we should expect market volatility to increase from the current VIX 13s.

If you love drama, the US equity/capital market should provide it, and more so… into the fall.
—

Summer offers

6 months at $17 a month for $102 (+ ONE month of free time)
12 months at $15 a month for $180 (+ THREE months of free time).

Notes:
-Payment for each offer is in one lump sum.
-Offers valid until midnight EDT, Sunday July 31st, 2024
–

You can pay via Stripe, which takes payments, including Visa, Mastercard, American Express, Discover, Diners Club, Apple Pay, Google Pay, and Link.

Six months > https://buy.stripe.com/8wM4kedNq0ee1DG002

Twelve months > https://buy.stripe.com/dR6eYSgZC7GGbeg3cd
–

You’re also welcome to Pay via Paypal.
See > https://www.tradingsunset.com/subscriptions
—

Yours… charts 24/7/365

Silver saw a net May gain of +$3.79 (14.2%) to $30.44, having printed $32.75, the highest since Dec’2012.

The break above psy’ $30 was decisive, as I shall continue to see silver as the most obvious, if not most comfortable trade into/across the summer.

It should be also be clear, the higher that silver climbs, the more wild/volatile the price action shall become. For some… it will be too much to stomach. For others… it could be very profitable.

A push to $40 looks realistic before Labor day. If correct, very bullish implications for the related silver miners, not least AG, PAAS, and HL.
—

For much more of the same, subscribe!

Yours… charts 24/7/365

US equities have begun April on a weak note, but two blue Elder* candles don’t count for much, having not seen a red candle since the Oct’2023 low. Indeed, 4103 is a very considerable 1101pts (21.1%) to the downside.

*for more on Elder Impulse candles… see: Stockcharts
–

As things are, I will continue to see the m/t trend as bullish unless a rollover in monthly price momentum, and a monthly settlement under the monthly 10MA – currently 4731 (adjusting into the 4800s in May).

Until then, I see any short index trades as distinctly risky, although the bolder day/swing traders could try. Long Gold, Silver, and Oil will arguably make for better sleep at night.

—

The wild cards

If the equity bulls should be concerned about anything this spring/summer, its a geo-political wild card/s. The US election is certainly one, but there are many others…

Ukraine/Russia/NATO
Israel/Gaza/Iran
China/Taiwan

I’m sure you could add to the list.

It should be clear… the war drums are getting ever louder. Whether you agree we’re already in the early stage of WWIII doesn’t really matter. What does matter is that you recognise the truck load of geo-political wild cards, which are arguably even more important than whether Print Central cuts or raises rates.

One thing is for sure, things on planet Krazy are only going to get more wild this year.
—

For more of the same… subscribe!

Yours… charts 24/7/365