The SPX saw a net March decline of -342pts (5.7%) at 5611, having printed a low of 5488.
Whilst the s/t outlook is bullish (5820/5840 zone), monthly momentum will turn negative as of April 1st. Further, March saw the first settlement under the monthly 10Ma since Oct’2023. The market is to be seen as m/t broken from 6147.
On balance, I’m looking for net downside into October… at least to around 4800.
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The SPX broke a new hist’ high of 6147, if cooling back to settle -86pts (1.4%) at 5954. Monthly momentum weakened a little, but remains distinctly positive, as all cooling waves are restrained. RSI 69s are high, but it could easily remain that way into the summer.
Another monthly settlement above the key 10MA (5728) as the m/t trend remains bullish. As of March 3rd, my line in the sand will adjust/jump to around 5800.
The s/t cyclical setup leans bullish, with the upper monthly bollinger offering the 6300s, as look realistic in April.
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The SPX saw the 12th monthly gain of 15, breaking a new hist’ high of 6128, if cooling back to settle +2.7% at 6040. The January candle is marginally bullish engulfing, suggestive of a new hist’ high… if more viable in March.
Monthly momentum weakened a little, but remains powerfully positive, as all cooling waves are restrained. RSI 71s is high, but it could easily remain that way into the summer.
Another monthly settlement above the key 10MA (5636) as the m/t trend remains bullish. As of next Monday, my line in the sand will adjust/jump to around 5700.
The s/t cyclical setup leans bearish to around 5900, but then resuming upward. Upper monthly bollinger is offering the low 6300s, as look realistic in March.
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Bullish popcorn
With Trump back in command, we’ve already seen the market a little spooked on talk of tariffs. We should expect further sporadic headlines in the days, weeks, and months ahead. Some will be adverse, but some will most certainly result in the market spiking to the upside.
If anything… I’m especially bullish for popcorn sales.
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The SPX saw a net December decline of -150pts (2.5%) to 5881, although that was from a new hist’ high of 6099. For the year, the SPX saw a net gain of 1111pts (23.3%).
As of January 2nd, the key monthly 10MA will jump/adjust to around 5640. To be decisive, the bears need a monthly settlement <5600, to break the mid/long term bullish trend.
I would be especially mindful of bond yields. If the US 10yr yield can break and hold above 5.00%, it will offer a grander run to around 7.00%. Typically, lower bond prices/higher bond yields > higher equities.
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