Trading Sunset

US equities ended a bullish week on a bullish note, the SPX printing a new hist’ high of 6807, settling +53pts (0.8%) to 6791, which made for a net weekly gain of +127pts (1.9%).

The weekly Elder candle was green, the first in five weeks.

Since the April low of 4835, its been nothing but greens and blues. We’ve not had any reds, as the US equity market remains short/mid/long term bullish.

A line in the sand?

There are a fair few break lines. On a weekly chart… the obvious one is the weekly 10MA, currently 6602 and higher with each week. I’d also keep in mind the Oct’10th ‘Trump tariff chatter’ low of 6550.

Equity bears now face the problem that their ‘seasonal prime time’ expires as of around Halloween. Typically, the market will lean upward from early November all the way into mid January.

Few of you will care… but…

The Shanghai comp’ is currently net higher for Oct’ by +1.7% at 3950.
The break above trend is pretty clear, and offers a grander run to 5K.

Implications… not least for NIU and XPEV.

—

Zero 7… circa 2015, before the mass societal-psychosis of 2020-22. Ohh, you didn’t really expect me to pander to the dumb vaxxed sheep… did you? Perhaps you need to return to your normal programming via FOX business or CNN.

As an increasing number recognise… its all downhill from here into the 2030s. Not all will survive, but then… most are not worthy.
—

With six trading days left of October, the SPX is higher for a sixth consecutive month, currently +49pts (0.75%) at 6738. Even if October settles net lower, with a new hist’ high of 6764, it should be seen as a net bullish month.

Monthly momentum is increasingly positive, as there is ZERO sign of a short, mid, never mind a long term top.  We’re set for another monthly settlement above the key monthly 10MA (6151) as the l/t trend remains bullish.

I’d be open to a brief washout to around 6K, but then what? Probably resuming upward into year end/early 2026.

Sure… stock valuations are ever more ludicrous. Maybe you’d prefer a Govt’ bond ? How about something from Japan, Germany, or the failed state of the UK ?

Oklo fell for the fifth day of six, settling -13.9% to $120.12.
I’d note the August $85s, as look viable in November.

Centrus fell for the fourth day of five, settling -16.5% to $314.82.
I’d note the August $264s, which look possible before end month

NuScale Power melted down for a fifth consecutive day, settling -9.5% to $34.72… which makes for one hell of a collapse from the recent historic high of $57.42.

I like all three on a l/t basis. Even if you assume the SPX sees just a 10% correction to around 6K, the nuclear stocks will surely be net lower from their current levels.

Yours… Iodine pills on standby.

Gold is currently net lower for the week by -$126 (3.0%) at $4123.

I’d especially note the most recent two weekly candles, which are spiky on the upper side, a sign of bullish exhaustion. Weekly momentum has just started to tick back lower.

Big support 3500/3400s.
–

Silver is currently net lower for the week by -$3.39 (6.5%) at $48.55.
The weekly candle is bearish engulfing, as last week’s spiky candle – reflective of tired bulls, is playing out. Weekly momentum has started to weaken.

Big support… psy’$40, and then the 39/38s.
Implications for the miners… into November.