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Travelers

Travelers settled Monday +1.2% to $265.25.
Friday’s black candle failed to play out.

Daily momentum is on the low side.
We’ve two upside gaps, with green 271/275

Some perspective…

Its been a mixed October, with Travelers printing a new hist’ high of $287.95, a spiral to the $252s, and bouncing to the current $265s

Monthly momentum has turned negative.
The current monthly candle is bearish engulfing.
I’d note the key monthly 10MA $263s.

I’ll be quietly watching this one into the FOMC of Oct’29th.

Net weekly gain

Despite a great many swings this week, the SPX managed a net weekly gain of +111pts (1.7%) to 6664. Weekly momentum is slowly weakening, prone to turning negative by Monday Oct’27th.

Underlying weakness…

The BPI was lower for the ninth day of ten. Equity bulls can argue we’re cyclically on the low side, but we sure aren’t anywhere close to the April low… back when SPX 4835.

Seasonally, bears have until around Halloween, and early November on a stretch. Beyond there… the market will be inclined for net upside into early 2026.

Few will care, but… China, monthly

The Shanghai comp’ has naturally stalled from resistance that extends back to 2007. Any price action >4K would be decisive, and offer a run to 5K by late spring 2026.

Gold is telling us something

Today gold printed a new hist’ high of $4319.62, as this week has seen an acceleration in the upward trend, partly due to a geo-political fear bid.

It should be clear that gold is telling us that something serious is broken within the US/global financial system.

Oh, and yes, every dollar higher increases the probability of a s/t ceiling, a fierce snap lower, with a multi-week cooling wave. It should be noted however, the most recent two cooling waves have just been sideways chop… aka bullish consolidation, than an actual drop in price.

The gold miners have appropriately been following gold (and silver) upward…

GDX, monthly

Today saw GDX printing a new hist’ high of $85.08.
Monthly RSI 87s… is the highest… ever.