Month: April 2025

The SPX has climbed from an April 7th low of 4835 to 5528. That is some 693pts (14.3%) across just fourteen trading days.

On any basis… its been one dramatic April. Mr Market has managed to washout a great many of the m/t bulls, whilst then also washing out most of the s/t bears. Its been normal service… in some ways.

Now its merely a case of whether we stall from within the 5700/800s, and eventually break <4835, or we continue to recover upward, and break a new hist’ high (>6147) this summer

My guess… remains the former. That view would be dropped on any sustained price action >5850, which would be decisively back above the monthly 10MA and the daily 200MA.
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With Trump announcing tariffs, Thursday and Friday have seen the most bearish price action since March 2020. Some are using the C word… but that still isn’t merited. I’d accept some individual stocks are in semi-crash mode.

We’re clearly s/t oversold, and prone to a multi-week bounce, with a fair number seeking a back test of the 200dma (and effectively… the monthly 10MA) in the 5700s within May/June.

As I noted at the end of March, I see the main market as ‘Mid term broken’, and I lean net bearish into the ‘seasonal flooring time’ of October.

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Even the once beloved Nvidia is m/t broken, having already fallen from the $152s to $92s.

Natural target is psy’ $50, although that looks out of range until Sept/Oct’.

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