Trading Sunset

Today gold printed a new hist’ high of $4319.62, as this week has seen an acceleration in the upward trend, partly due to a geo-political fear bid.

It should be clear that gold is telling us that something serious is broken within the US/global financial system.

Oh, and yes, every dollar higher increases the probability of a s/t ceiling, a fierce snap lower, with a multi-week cooling wave. It should be noted however, the most recent two cooling waves have just been sideways chop… aka bullish consolidation, than an actual drop in price.
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The gold miners have appropriately been following gold (and silver) upward…

GDX, monthly

Today saw GDX printing a new hist’ high of $85.08.
Monthly RSI 87s… is the highest… ever.

Equity price action remains distinctly unstable.
Today saw sig’ gains to 6724, a downward swing to 6612, if recovering to 6671.

Clearly, such swings are mostly trade-headline related.

re: SPX hourly chart…
There is a H/S structure.
Bears could argue today saw a head test… with a reversal.
However… I’ve seen a number of H/S recently, and they’ve simply not been playing out. On this structure… confidence is low.
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AMD settled +9.4% to $238.60, on higher vol of 107M, partly ‘inspired’ by Wedbush, outperform, 190>270.

I like the company and the products, but this is a clear case of unjustified AI-hysteria. Frankly, I’m beyond tired of it, but that doesn’t mean I’d short any of the semicons.

On a related note…

NuScale Power (SMR) broke a new hist’ high of $56.16 on record vol of 60M, as its part of the AI-hysteria, on the notion of data centers needing a great many onsite nuclear power plants.

This appeared on SMR’s YT channel this morning…

L/t bullish nuclear.
I just wish they were using Thorium, rather than Uranium.

KKR settled +4.6% to $125.98. Today’s gain is not the sort of thing the equity bears can argue is just a bounce, and is instead suggestive that KKR has a s/t floor from the $117s.

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JPM saw an early low of $294.21, if recovering to settle -1.9% to $302.08. Today’s candle is spiky on the lower side from around the 50dma. Cyclically low.

Earnings were fine…
EPS $5.07 vs 4.84est. Rev’ y/y +8.8% to $47.1bn vs 45.4est.
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Goldman saw an early low of $742.46, and recovering to settle -2.0% to $770.76. Today’s candle is a hollow red reversal from around the 50dma. Cyclically low.

Earnings were good…
EPS $12.25 vs 10.86est. Rev’ y/y +19.5% to $15.18bn vs 14.09est.
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It turned out to be a rather typical ‘turnaround Tuesday’

… for what remains the world’s most entertaining, twisted, and rigged casino.

Monday saw a pretty strong bounce, the SPX settling +102pts (1.6%) to 6654. S/t momentum turned positive in the late afternoon.

The s/t cyclical setup favours the bulls for early Tuesday… with Q3 earnings due to begin with the financial giant of JPM.

The issue is whether the SPX can break AND hold >6700, or whether we see a stall… and (at least) re-test the Friday low of 6550.

Yours… watching the financials, not least KKR.