Trading Sunset

With Trump announcing tariffs, Thursday and Friday have seen the most bearish price action since March 2020. Some are using the C word… but that still isn’t merited. I’d accept some individual stocks are in semi-crash mode.

We’re clearly s/t oversold, and prone to a multi-week bounce, with a fair number seeking a back test of the 200dma (and effectively… the monthly 10MA) in the 5700s within May/June.

As I noted at the end of March, I see the main market as ‘Mid term broken’, and I lean net bearish into the ‘seasonal flooring time’ of October.

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Even the once beloved Nvidia is m/t broken, having already fallen from the $152s to $92s.

Natural target is psy’ $50, although that looks out of range until Sept/Oct’.

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The SPX saw a net March decline of -342pts (5.7%) at 5611, having printed a low of 5488.

Whilst the s/t outlook is bullish (5820/5840 zone), monthly momentum will turn negative as of April 1st. Further, March saw the first settlement under the monthly 10Ma since Oct’2023. The market is to be seen as m/t broken from 6147.

On balance, I’m looking for net downside into October… at least to around 4800.

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The SPX broke a new hist’ high of 6147, if cooling back to settle -86pts (1.4%) at 5954. Monthly momentum weakened a little, but remains distinctly positive, as all cooling waves are restrained. RSI 69s are high, but it could easily remain that way into the summer.

Another monthly settlement above the key 10MA (5728) as the m/t trend remains bullish. As of March 3rd, my line in the sand will adjust/jump to around 5800.

The s/t cyclical setup leans bullish, with the upper monthly bollinger offering the 6300s, as look realistic in April.

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The SPX saw the 12th monthly gain of 15, breaking a new hist’ high of 6128, if cooling back to settle +2.7% at 6040. The January candle is marginally bullish engulfing, suggestive of a new hist’ high… if more viable in March.

Monthly momentum weakened a little, but remains powerfully positive, as all cooling waves are restrained. RSI 71s is high, but it could easily remain that way into the summer.

Another monthly settlement above the key 10MA (5636) as the m/t trend remains bullish. As of next Monday, my line in the sand will adjust/jump to around 5700.

The s/t cyclical setup leans bearish to around 5900, but then resuming upward. Upper monthly bollinger is offering the low 6300s, as look realistic in March.
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Bullish popcorn

With Trump back in command, we’ve already seen the market a little spooked on talk of tariffs. We should expect further sporadic headlines in the days, weeks, and months ahead. Some will be adverse, but some will most certainly result in the market spiking to the upside.
If anything… I’m especially bullish for popcorn sales.
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