Category: Uncategorized

The SPX has climbed from an April 7th low of 4835 to 5528. That is some 693pts (14.3%) across just fourteen trading days.

On any basis… its been one dramatic April. Mr Market has managed to washout a great many of the m/t bulls, whilst then also washing out most of the s/t bears. Its been normal service… in some ways.

Now its merely a case of whether we stall from within the 5700/800s, and eventually break <4835, or we continue to recover upward, and break a new hist’ high (>6147) this summer

My guess… remains the former. That view would be dropped on any sustained price action >5850, which would be decisively back above the monthly 10MA and the daily 200MA.
–

Subscription offer

Buy one month… get the second month free.

Just purchase one month of time, and I’ll credit you two!

Notes…

You should not (normally) need a Paypal account.
Offer is valid until midnight EDT, Sunday, June 29th 2025

Near the end of your second month, I’ll email you, and make you an offer to continue.

Special note… please provide an email address that you regularly use, when you subscribe, so I can send your account login details!

If you have any issues or questions, email me.
> https://www.tradingsunset.com/contact/  

Yours… charts 24/7/365

With Trump announcing tariffs, Thursday and Friday have seen the most bearish price action since March 2020. Some are using the C word… but that still isn’t merited. I’d accept some individual stocks are in semi-crash mode.

We’re clearly s/t oversold, and prone to a multi-week bounce, with a fair number seeking a back test of the 200dma (and effectively… the monthly 10MA) in the 5700s within May/June.

As I noted at the end of March, I see the main market as ‘Mid term broken’, and I lean net bearish into the ‘seasonal flooring time’ of October.

—

Even the once beloved Nvidia is m/t broken, having already fallen from the $152s to $92s.

Natural target is psy’ $50, although that looks out of range until Sept/Oct’.

For more of the same… subscribe!

Yours… charts 24/7/365

The SPX saw a net March decline of -342pts (5.7%) at 5611, having printed a low of 5488.

Whilst the s/t outlook is bullish (5820/5840 zone), monthly momentum will turn negative as of April 1st. Further, March saw the first settlement under the monthly 10Ma since Oct’2023. The market is to be seen as m/t broken from 6147.

On balance, I’m looking for net downside into October… at least to around 4800.

Yours… charts 24/7/365

The SPX broke a new hist’ high of 6147, if cooling back to settle -86pts (1.4%) at 5954. Monthly momentum weakened a little, but remains distinctly positive, as all cooling waves are restrained. RSI 69s are high, but it could easily remain that way into the summer.

Another monthly settlement above the key 10MA (5728) as the m/t trend remains bullish. As of March 3rd, my line in the sand will adjust/jump to around 5800.

The s/t cyclical setup leans bullish, with the upper monthly bollinger offering the 6300s, as look realistic in April.

For more of the same… subscribe!

Yours… charts 24/7/365