Author: Philip Calrissian

Despite a great many swings this week, the SPX managed a net weekly gain of +111pts (1.7%) to 6664. Weekly momentum is slowly weakening, prone to turning negative by Monday Oct’27th.

Underlying weakness…

The BPI was lower for the ninth day of ten. Equity bulls can argue we’re cyclically on the low side, but we sure aren’t anywhere close to the April low… back when SPX 4835.

Seasonally, bears have until around Halloween, and early November on a stretch. Beyond there… the market will be inclined for net upside into early 2026.

Few will care, but… China, monthly

The Shanghai comp’ has naturally stalled from resistance that extends back to 2007. Any price action >4K would be decisive, and offer a run to 5K by late spring 2026.

Today gold printed a new hist’ high of $4319.62, as this week has seen an acceleration in the upward trend, partly due to a geo-political fear bid.

It should be clear that gold is telling us that something serious is broken within the US/global financial system.

Oh, and yes, every dollar higher increases the probability of a s/t ceiling, a fierce snap lower, with a multi-week cooling wave. It should be noted however, the most recent two cooling waves have just been sideways chop… aka bullish consolidation, than an actual drop in price.
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The gold miners have appropriately been following gold (and silver) upward…

GDX, monthly

Today saw GDX printing a new hist’ high of $85.08.
Monthly RSI 87s… is the highest… ever.

Equity price action remains distinctly unstable.
Today saw sig’ gains to 6724, a downward swing to 6612, if recovering to 6671.

Clearly, such swings are mostly trade-headline related.

re: SPX hourly chart…
There is a H/S structure.
Bears could argue today saw a head test… with a reversal.
However… I’ve seen a number of H/S recently, and they’ve simply not been playing out. On this structure… confidence is low.
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AMD settled +9.4% to $238.60, on higher vol of 107M, partly ‘inspired’ by Wedbush, outperform, 190>270.

I like the company and the products, but this is a clear case of unjustified AI-hysteria. Frankly, I’m beyond tired of it, but that doesn’t mean I’d short any of the semicons.

On a related note…

NuScale Power (SMR) broke a new hist’ high of $56.16 on record vol of 60M, as its part of the AI-hysteria, on the notion of data centers needing a great many onsite nuclear power plants.

This appeared on SMR’s YT channel this morning…

L/t bullish nuclear.
I just wish they were using Thorium, rather than Uranium.

KKR settled +4.6% to $125.98. Today’s gain is not the sort of thing the equity bears can argue is just a bounce, and is instead suggestive that KKR has a s/t floor from the $117s.

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JPM saw an early low of $294.21, if recovering to settle -1.9% to $302.08. Today’s candle is spiky on the lower side from around the 50dma. Cyclically low.

Earnings were fine…
EPS $5.07 vs 4.84est. Rev’ y/y +8.8% to $47.1bn vs 45.4est.
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Goldman saw an early low of $742.46, and recovering to settle -2.0% to $770.76. Today’s candle is a hollow red reversal from around the 50dma. Cyclically low.

Earnings were good…
EPS $12.25 vs 10.86est. Rev’ y/y +19.5% to $15.18bn vs 14.09est.
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It turned out to be a rather typical ‘turnaround Tuesday’

… for what remains the world’s most entertaining, twisted, and rigged casino.