Author: Philip Calrissian

As at Dec’14th, there are just 10.5 trading days left of the year. The Christmas break will be most welcome, then New Years, and onward to Trump’s second inauguration.
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The SPX is currently net higher by +26.9%. On any basis, its been a strong year for the equity bulls, only being marginally outperformed by the precious metals.

The cheerleaders and associated ‘smart guys’ of clown finance TV, are naturally continuing to tout #everythingisfine . As many of you realise though, the reality is rather different.

Regardless of the exact 2024 settlement, 2025 should be more wild, not least with monstrous geo-political wild cards, such as Ukraine/Russia, the middle east, and China/Taiwan.

There is Trump of course, not least in terms of tariffs, and whether ‘DOGE’ can achieve any degree of success in cutting needless spending.

If you read around, you’ll be aware of chatter of SPX 7K, 8K, or even higher. Yet it is an #everythingbubble , and we know it can’t possibly end well.

Whilst the short and mid term trend has to currently be seen as bullish, I’ll be one of the first to call a break… when there is one.

For much more of the same…

Yours… awaiting Santa

As expected… Trump won, even winning the popular vote. Equities have naturally seen a ‘Trump bump’, with the US equity market breaking new historic highs.

The mainstream cheerleaders are (somewhat ironically) delighted, touting #everythingisfine even louder than before the humiliating defeat of Harris.

The US/western economy is unquestionably slowing, with recessionary signs all over the place. Regardless of the remainder of the year, conditions are ever more difficult for the broken consumer. For many… there will be no Thanksgiving, nor a Christmas.

Two key charts…

The Sept’18th rate cut merits as the ultimate equity sell signal, with the Fed cutting by another -25bps to 4.50-4.75%, as of Nov’7th.

The US 10yr/2yr spread stands at +11bps.
The sustained uninversion merits as a second powerful equity sell signal.

Again… to be clear though, having printed a new hist’ high of SPX 6017, the m/t trend has to be seen as bullish.

Bears arguably need to see a monthly settlement under the monthly 10MA (5463 as of Nov’15th), to have provisional confidence the m/t trend has been broken.

At some point… the music stops. Right now, that doesn’t appear likely until the flip side of Jan’1st 2025. The patient… yours truly included, will remain so.
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As of the November 1st close, the SPX stands at 5728, having seen some choppy cooling from the Oct’17th hist’ high of 5878. Monthly momentum is weakening, but will likely stay positive until at least next March.

Equity bears need a monthly settlement <5400 (to be decisive) to be able to claim the m/t bullish trend has been broken.

Regardless of who wins the US election, it should be clear… the US economy is slowing. Whilst Q3 GDP printed 2.8%, its grossly skewed by 5-6% of deficit spending. Other econ-data points aren’t as pretty, not least with a garbage jobs report from the BLS.

Many have been lost in the hysteria, with the mainstream cheerleaders continuing to tout #everythingisfine . For most within the USA and Europe, the reality is very different, with the consumer increasingly broken.

Yours truly is patiently awaiting a ‘decisive’ main market rollover. Whether that is before year end, or not until next year, I will be there, and hope YOU will too!

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Its the treacherous month of October, but the SPX is close to breaking a new historic high. Why worry though… as everything is fine, yes?

As of Oct’4th 2024, the monthly RSI is 72. Sure, it can stay above the key 70 threshold for months at a time, but on any basis, this market is m/t overbought.

We have ‘interesting’ times ahead, not least with the US election, further rate cuts, and an increasingly nightmarish geo-political situation.

I would keep in mind we’ve now seen rate cut’1, and a sustained uninversion of the US 10yr/2yr yield curve. Both merit as equity sell signals. For now though, the mainstream cheerleaders and associated ‘smart guys’ continue to tout the #everythingisfine narrative.

Ohh, and to be quite clear, whilst we don’t have a m/t turn yet, once we do, I’ll be one of the first to call it.
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yours… still typing