Author: Philip Calrissian

Last week’s black doji weekly candle played out. This week’s candle is bearish engulfing, and bodes for a lower low next week. Weekly momentum is weakening, and finally set to turn negative. In theory… the weekly 10MA will be sustainably traded under, and then down to the mid 6100s before year end.

It is ironic that whilst the bears failed to achieve anything in ‘prime time’ of Sept-Oct’, that instead, the market appears for net downside across Nov-early Jan’.
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Ytd perform…

Silver +67.5%
Gold +52.5%
Copper +24.2%
SPX +14.4%
TLT +6.3%
WTIC -16.5%

… for what remains a year for the precious metals. Cheap oil/energy is one distinct prop to a weakening US/global economy.

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A sixth consecutive net monthly gain, having broken a new hist’ high of 6920. Monthly momentum is increasingly positive, and is on the moderately high side. A sixth consecutive settlement above the monthly 10MA (6162), as the mid/long term trend is unquestionably bullish. RSI 75s is overbought. Vol’ was a pretty high 69bn.

With just one sixth left of the year…

Ytd perform’

Silver +68.5%
Gold +52.3%
Copper +27.8%
SPX +16.3%
TLT +6.8%
WTIC -15.1%

Despite some cooling, it remains a year for the precious metals.
Equities are having a fine year.
Cheaper oil is the perhaps the biggest positive for the US/global economy.

BMY is net higher for the week by +4.1% at $45.62.
The weekly candle is bullish engulfing, with a spike floor from the $42s.
Indeed… the $42s are VERY powerful support, which is partly why I went long on Tuesday, ahead of earnings.
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CAH broke a new hist’ high, currently +17.3% in the $189s.
Weekly momentum has turned positive.
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ABBV is currently +0.1% at $228.20.
Weekly momentum is weakening, but multi-week structure is a bull flag.
Earnings are due early Friday, and should be good.

“Their stock market today, and our stock market today, hit an all time high, that means we’re doing something right” – Trump, with PM Takaichi of Japan

Full video…

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Japan, monthly

The Nikkei is higher for a seventh consecutive month, having broken a new hist’ high, currently net higher by a rather massive +14.2% at 51307.  I wonder how many are starting to ask ‘how long until 100K ?’

USA – Dow, monthly

The mighty Dow is higher for a sixth consecutive month, breaking a new hist’ high, currently net higher by +2.7% at 47632.

Psy’ 50K is clearly viable before year end.  As is the case for the Nikkei, I wonder how many are starting to ask ‘how long until 100K ?’