Month: November 2025

A seventh consecutive net monthly gain, if only by +0.1%. The November candle is spiky on the lower side, having recovered from 6521 to settle at 6849. Monthly momentum ticked a little higher, and is on the high side. A monthly settlement above the key 10MA (6242), as the mid/long term trend remains bullish.

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Ytd perform’, with 21.5 trading days left of 2025…

Silver +84.7%
Gold +58.6%
Copper +28.7%
SPX +15.8%
TLT +7.6%
WTIC -18.2%

2025 is clearly the year for the precious metals.
Equities have had a pretty strong year.
Bonds are up… as the Fed cut rates
The one major positive for the US/global economy… cheaper oil/gasoline.
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Last week’s black doji weekly candle played out. This week’s candle is bearish engulfing, and bodes for a lower low next week. Weekly momentum is weakening, and finally set to turn negative. In theory… the weekly 10MA will be sustainably traded under, and then down to the mid 6100s before year end.

It is ironic that whilst the bears failed to achieve anything in ‘prime time’ of Sept-Oct’, that instead, the market appears for net downside across Nov-early Jan’.
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Ytd perform…

Silver +67.5%
Gold +52.5%
Copper +24.2%
SPX +14.4%
TLT +6.3%
WTIC -16.5%

… for what remains a year for the precious metals. Cheap oil/energy is one distinct prop to a weakening US/global economy.

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